Carillion has "no future"?

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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby underfog » Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:37 am

blythburgh wrote:Dead cat bounce is due to them being awarded the HS2 rail link work.


So much for scaremongering us "no future".

Shares are long-term investments so we just need to sit back and relax.
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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby mike » Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:33 am

The balance sheet has big holes and company is teetering on the brink. There is likely to be a rights issue, which will dilute our stake (i.e. reduces the value of our holding further) unless we participate (i.e. stump up cash). Are we prepared to participate?

I know HS2 has awarded a contract and this is to be welcomed, but they are withdrawing from market segments (Middle East) which will reduce future expected profits (and future losses which were until recently unexpected).

Bear in mind that HS2 is a government contract. If you were a private company or a government department setting up a 25 year PFI, would you place it with a company that may or may not see the year out?

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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby Constantine » Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:54 am

The HS2 contracts have been awarded to the CEK joint venture, consisting of Carillion, Eiffage and Kier

The JV will build two tunnels;

Lot C2 – North Portal Chiltern Tunnels to Brackley £724m
Lot C3 – Brackley to Long Itchington Wood Green Tunnel South Portal £616m

https://www.carillionplc.com/news-and-m ... th-1-4-bn/


mike wrote:The balance sheet has big holes and company is teetering on the brink. There is likely to be a rights issue, which will dilute our stake (i.e. reduces the value of our holding further) unless we participate (i.e. stump up cash). Are we prepared to participate?...


Odds on there will be a rights issue.

mike wrote:....I know HS2 has awarded a contract and this is to be welcomed, but they are withdrawing from market segments (Middle East) which will reduce future expected profits (and future losses which were until recently unexpected).

Bear in mind that HS2 is a government contract. If you were a private company or a government department setting up a 25 year PFI, would you place it with a company that may or may not see the year out?


They have "secure undertakings from all the members of the consortium that they will deliver that contract". Presumably, HMG expect the other two members to deliver, irrespective of what happens to Carillion.

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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby ukrussian » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:06 pm

.
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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby timco » Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:08 pm

blythburgh wrote:Dead cat bounce is due to them being awarded the HS2 rail link work.


This is not a "dead cat bounce" this is a minor bounce on good news but this may not be enough remember the problems they are having is caused by under bidding on contracts around the world including in the UK.

75% is a spectacular fall and one that is hard to recover from we ditched Sainsburys which was not losing money and was paying 4% in dividends because it was not making us money in capital growth this one is down a large lump and no longer paying any dividend I see little reason to keep it.

I have stated before I am terrible myself in deciding when to cut loose a share that is either gaining or losing have a few shares I should have cut adrift a long time ago as I have held them for years they have never made me a penny and don't pay any dividends they just seem to be there to make money for the people employed by them.

We could hang on and hope for rises but where do you see that rise coming from?

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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby kevinchess1 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:11 pm

I think we let it go
Maybe it will gain a little but just as likely to lose again
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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby kevinchess1 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:57 pm

Constantine wrote:...They have "secure undertakings from all the members of the consortium that they will deliver that contract".


Yes, I've had promises from builders too. :(
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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby Constantine » Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:19 pm

kevinchess1 wrote:
Constantine wrote:...They have "secure undertakings from all the members of the consortium that they will deliver that contract".


Yes, I've had promises from builders too. :(


Ah yes, but did you get a "secure undertaking"? :)

And, no, I don't know what that means.

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Re: Carillion has "no future"?

Postby Chadwick » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:45 am

Constantine wrote:
kevinchess1 wrote:
Constantine wrote:...They have "secure undertakings from all the members of the consortium that they will deliver that contract".


Yes, I've had promises from builders too. :(


Ah yes, but did you get a "secure undertaking"? :)

And, no, I don't know what that means.


Some kind of underpinning?

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