Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

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Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by Richard Frost » Thu Jul 08 2021 4:46pm

Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/uk-news/ ... newsletter
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Re: Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by pabenny » Thu Jul 08 2021 5:17pm

Ultimately government decision-making is political. They have to balance the effects of covid infections against the effects of lockdowns and other restrictions to prevent spread.

The authors of the letter reported seem only to be considering the levels of covid infection. The also appear to be ignoring both volume of tests and the seriousness of infections. There are now more than 7 million tests a week, so presumably we are identifying many more asymptomatic and mild cases.

The authors also appear to be ignoring the impact on other illnesses: hospital waiting lists have grown hugely suggesting a huge level of untreated illness, some of which will end in accelerated death. And that's before you consider the economic effects and the ensuing health impacts.
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Re: Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by Sarah » Thu Jul 08 2021 5:30pm

Britain Surrenders

Image

The UK broke through the 5,000,000 infections (confirmed positive tests) milestone today, i.e. approximately 7.5% of the population.

There's talk of plans to start charging for NHS lateral flow testing kits from next month - if they go ahead, that will presumably suppress the statistics (but not the infections).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 79797.html
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Re: Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by pabenny » Fri Jul 09 2021 7:42am

That graph invites us to believe that the UK is performing significantly worse than the other nations shown. And indeed, that is some of the picture.

But look a little deeper. The chart shows cases per million (presumably per million population). So that plot shows that roughly 1 in 3,000 have tested positive in the last week (rolling 7 days). But how many people are being tested in the other countries? Tests have been widely and freely available in the UK for 4-6 weeks. - precisely the time when the uptick in positives began. Can you get free tests in Germany? USA?

The chart invites us to believe that covid is out of control here compared with some other large countries. But I don't think that's what it's saying. We need to ask more questions to understand the data properly.
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Re: Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by blythburgh » Fri Jul 09 2021 8:01am

Lies, Damned Lies and the misuse of statistics
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Re: Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by Chadwick » Fri Jul 09 2021 11:52am

The two articles linked above illustrate the elephant in the room. No-one known what's going on any more. We're bombarded with so many statistics and so much misleading data that you can draw any conclusion from it to support your predetermined viewpoint.

Comparing numbers of infections against a) another point in time or b) another country is fraught with complications. The numbers of infections are known because of the results of testing. But it matters who is being tested.
If the only people testing are those who suspect they might have caught it, the asymptomatic cases go largely undetected and unreported. Those with mild symptoms might not bother reporting either. With a widespread testing program, those cases are picked up.
Consequently, it's difficult to compare statistics like cases-per-million-people if the testing regimes differ.

The other aspect to be considered is that Britain's vaccination program is more advanced than most others, certainly in Europe. I've seen graphs showing that the delay from June to July cuts off the predicted peak of this wave and from August case numbers are expected to fall. That's what the government is banking on. We've already seen that severe illness and deaths are massively reduced by the vaccines, meaning whilst many people might still get ill, the vast majority will recover quickly and fully. The big question is whether that cost (and the severe, long term and fatal cases) outweighs the costs of continued restrictions (hospital waiting times, mental illness, economic impact).
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Re: Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by pabenny » Fri Jul 09 2021 12:47pm

And with no disrespect to the posters, the articles are borderline fake news: although the data provided is accurate, the way it is presented and the headlines surrounding it that encourage the reader to draw particular conclusions.
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Re: Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by Sarah » Fri Jul 09 2021 1:13pm

The first is an opinion piece. The second from The Independent says "could be" regarding charges for lateral flow tests, which doesn't seem an entirely unfair way to comment on a wait-and-see situation, with the quoted spokesperson not yet providing guidance either way:
“A statement will be forthcoming about whether or not it will be extended beyond that,” a spokesperson told The Independent.
There's lots of blatantly false, misleading and disingenuous journalism out there, much more deserving of being called Fake News, not least in UK print media.

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Re: Is the government pursuing herd immunity through mass infection?

Post by pabenny » Fri Jul 09 2021 3:27pm

Sarah wrote:
Fri Jul 09 2021 1:13pm
There's lots of blatantly false, misleading and disingenuous journalism out there... not least in UK print media.
There is indeed. But it's the routine manipulation of truth by the media that inures us to the more egregious falsehoods: When presented with opinions framed as a questions ("is the government...?") or speculative expressions such as "could be", we tend to hear them as statements of fact.

Because the graph above is factually accurate (even if misleading), the reader is encouraged to believe the article it accompanied is also true. (That said, most of the comments seemed to dismiss the article as garbage).

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