Changes to the NIP

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macliam
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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by macliam » Mon Jun 13 2022 11:19am

So, today we are due to see the government proposals for the NI Protocol. Brandon Lewis has proclaimed that nothing in it will be contrary to international law, which is very different to the previous suggestion that they were prepared to "break international law in a very specific and limited way". Presumably, the feedback received from the US government, amongst others, has caused a rethink.

Unless it is some suggested clarification of the wording (which would NOT satisfy the DUP), or proposals for achieving the agreed goals for the NIP by means other than those used now (which would seem uncontroversial) it's hard to see how any concrete unilateral proposals would not contravene a legally binding international agreement in spirit, if not in substance.

The key issue remains - the border between NI and the Republic is the only land border that the UK has with an EU member - and without membership of the EU Single Market or a bilateral agreement on trade and immigration between the EU and the UK, there is a need to ensure that goods and people moving between the two are compliant with the rules and standards applicable. However, having a "hard border" on the island of Ireland is contrary to the terms of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) and therefore a potential threat to peace.

So, the Protocol was an attempt to address both those issues, basically by making NI a member of the EU Single Market and obviating the need for border controls between it and the Republic. However, that means that there then need to be controls between Great Britain and NI..... the "border" must be somewhere, if there is no bilateral agreement to obviate it. This "border in the Irish sea" is unacceptable to the unionists who refuse to countenance any different treatment of NI from any other constituent part of the UK.

The Tories have claimed, repeatedly, that the current situation affects trade in NI - and they are right - NI has shown a far bigger bounce back after Covid than any other UK region - seeing a positive increase in trade, whereas the second highest performer, London, was still negative overall. This seems likely to be due to its unique position. Certainly, there have been specific issues with the NIP, many of which have already been addressed - but denying NI the bonus of its position as a member of the Single Market threatens to return it to pre-Brexit levels, when it consistently brought up the rear of all the UK regions in terms of growth.

So why look to force a change? Well, obviously, it is "better" to have no rules, than to have to comply with them..... or to set your own rules without the need to agree them with others - who could disagree? But to do that you need a framework, which has proven impossible to implement. So, given that is the case, what are the drivers for the UK government to take action NOW? Firstly, the DUP, having failed to achieve a majority in the recent elections, is now exercising a stranglehold on the Assembly. Secondly, the extreme Brexiteers within the Tory party still object to oversight of the NIP by the ECJ and want to get away from that.

The problem here is that it was the British government who proposed the NIP to avoid the dreaded "backstop" and move past the border issue to "get Brexit done". So, for all the talk of EU intransigence or that the EU is applying the Protocol too harshly. This suggests either that the UK government only agreed to the Protocol in order to kick the ball into the long grass - and always intended to break it later, or that they did not consider the impact of the protocol before signing it. Neither looks good for Johnson et al.

But what impact can this all have? Obviously the first impact is to undermine the entire Leaving agreement between the UK and the EU, which would drive us into the hardest of hard Brexits. Then, if NI loses its position within the Single market, its economy will be impacted. Then if a land border DOES become necessary, there is the issue of the GFA. That's leaving aside the fact that, whilst Suella Braverman might think what is being proposed is "legal", others may well disagree.... and it takes two to Tango.

One thing which was reported on RTÉ last week might surprise people too... An immigrant to Ireland (not an Irish citizen but with legal residence papers), cannot legally cross into NI - even though there is no border for his identity to be checked. There have been cases where such people have been detained - and deported. It was not suggested that the reverse is or is not true, but the "no border" policy is plainly for trade only.
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macliam
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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by macliam » Mon Jun 13 2022 12:49pm

With regard to my final comment.... it has now been pointed out that tourism north or south will be impacted, if this attitude to cross-border travel is followed. Anyone without a UK or Irish passport will be able to drive from Dublin to Belfast, but to do so will be illegal unless they have been granted access to the UK..... and there's nowhere for that to happen (unless they want to try the British Embassy).

More importantly, anyone touring Donegal will be illegal if they drive the 2km from the unmarked border to Derry city. There's also the "interesting" drive from Clones to Cavan (both in the Republic), which crosses the border 4 times in 10 minutes!!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-northe ... d-40104333
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macliam
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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by macliam » Mon Jun 13 2022 10:08pm

So, presumably I can now do anything that I like..... as long as I claim it was a "necessity".......

Johnson's crew use language in the same way as Putin.... this is not reneging on a treaty, it is “not a big deal” according to the Liar in chief and anyway the goverment proposals are only to "safeguard an essential interest" according to the always well-informed Liz Truss. ;)

That will be why most of the elected representatives and business leaders in NI support the NIP, why NI trade figures are better than the rest of the UK and why part of the proposal is a unilateral decision to remove arbitration of the protocol by the ECJ (which exists to judge disputes in EU law), in favour of some undefined "independent arbitration" (because we all know how much we can trust Johnson when it comes to legal matters). The fact that the Brexiteers tried and tried and tried (and failed) to lever the ECJ out of its judicial position during the Brexit negotiations won't be lost on anyone. :think:

The ERG have finally achieved the Brexit they wanted....... but it will come at a cost to everyone and it won't vote the DUP back into power, because people in NI will remember who killed the golden goose.

Meanwhile, for anyone who complained that Ireland was being unfair in refusing to accept the UKs promises about the border during the Brexit negotiations....... now you know why! :shifty:

Makes you proud, eh?
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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by macliam » Tue Jun 14 2022 1:28am

Image
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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by Sarah » Tue Jun 14 2022 11:54am

Image

Context:
Liz Truss stumbles over Taoiseach & ends up calling the Irish PM a tea sock.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/15 ... WD6LVOiuOg

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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by macliam » Tue Jun 14 2022 12:24pm

D'you think she actually knows that Ireland is part of the EU?

Truss really needs to stay away from Simon Coveney, because he'll do her serious harm!

What a joke.....
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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by Sarah » Wed Jun 15 2022 6:58am

Image

Full text of 'The Belfast Agreement' can be found here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... reland.pdf

The more recent 'Trade and Cooperation Agreement' with the EU has dependencies on the ECHR too:
https://twitter.com/LordRickettsP/statu ... leavT0keCw



"Patrick Stewart sketch: What has the ECHR ever done for us?" (NSFW)
https://youtu.be/0vxw8A6etFI

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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by macliam » Wed Jun 15 2022 9:12pm

Twice today I have heard references to a "European judge" and a "European Court" with regard to Rwanda. Those using the term know full well that Europe equates to EU in many people's minds......

I also heard a Unionist politician referring to Dublin as "a foreign government". Good to see he has actually read the GFA.... because that term was dismissed by the policy of "shared responsibility"..... Ireland even had a referendum to change the constitution to allow for it.

Rhetoric costs lives......
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Re: Changes to the NIP

Post by macliam » Tue Jun 28 2022 11:12am

So yesterday, in yet another stunning display of "democracy" in Westminster, the bill to renege on parts of the NIP passed it's first reading by 295 votes to 221.... and whilst several Tories spoke out against it, not a single one voted against it. Theresa May said it breached International law (in contrast to unpublished government claims), Simon Hoare, the Tory chair of the Commons Northern Ireland Committee said the bill played "fast and loose with our international reputation" and former international development secretary Andrew Mitchell said it "brazenly breaks" the UK's obligations..... but, not one Tory voted against it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61959526

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Donaldson of the DUP said they would "consider what steps we can take" about "allowing" the NI Assembly to sit if the bill gets through all its Commons stages intact. How gracious and such a great outcome, truly if you dine with the devil you need a long spoon. It's odd that people choose to forget that it was the Unionists who threatened UDI from the UK in the early 70s, when it looked as if their dominance of NI was being threatened over Civil Rights, so Loyalism seems to be an oxymoron to cover the DUP taking any anti-democratic approach to retain power........no wonder the Tories like them!

As the NIP was the keystone for the Trade and Commerce Agreement between the EU and the UK, there have already been calls for the whole agreement to be suspended..... which would mean the UK getting the hardest of hard Brexits as desired by the ERG. At the very least the UK faces sanctions and legal action from the EU as a result of its unilateral actions. Johnson's crew don't have enough to be getting on with, given the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and rampant inflation....... it seems it's now time to support sectarianism and bang the Union drum (not Trades Union, of course!!).

Back to "Get Brexit Done", eh?
Just because I'm paranoid, it doesn't mean they're not out to get me

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