Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

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garindan
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Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by garindan » Wed Jun 20 2018 4:10pm

Hi everyone,

Apologies this post has taken a time coming. I've been thinking about what our next steps should be with our long-term shares for a number of weeks now. It is perplexing stuff to be honest - personally I am in two minds about some of them, so it has been difficult to make firm suggestions. I'll run through my thoughts one by one....

GSK
- very happy to hold this one for the long term and let it earn money
- currently on the up

UU.
- this has been a very good income generating share for us
- currently down on what we bought our previous two lots for but I am not very concerned about this

Aviva
- seems to be performing nicely at the moment
- very good dividend

ITV
- this one is still down on purchase price but has been recovering recently despite the BREXIT pressure on advertising income
- has paid good income in the past and will hopefully continue to do so
- we have held this one for a long while holding out for potential takeover and whilst it is earning us income I don't really see a need to move it on

Greene King
- has been hit by hard times since we were initially ~10% up
- recently the share price has risen by about 20-25%, bring one of our purchases back towards the purchase price and the other still a fair bit down
- the brokers tip this one to be the big winner if England progress out the group stages at the world cup
- this share pays a very strong dividend
- I think we need to see what happens in the world cup and if England do progress to the knockout, the further they go the better it should be for us as a shareholder, but if England don't get out the group we might want to consider our position

Vodafone
- the only way has been down with this one since we purchased it
- not sure of the merits of selling now as the price is very poor and analysts suggest it is now a strong buy
- big dividend due to us that will wipe 1/3rd of the paper loss out

So this is how I see it:

Core shares:
- GSK
- UU.
- ITV
- Aviva

Shares to review position on:
- GNK (Caveat - review impact of world cup on potential)
- VOD (hold for the moment and consider options)

In the coming months we should look to review all shares' performance.

We also need to discuss what an exit point would be for a profitable sale. Currently I think 3x dividend gain on purchase price is a reasonable concept.

Thoughts from others greatly welcome, on the above and your own views. :thumbup:
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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by kevinchess1 » Wed Jun 20 2018 5:34pm

So you’re not really in favour of selling anything?
Don’t you think our portfolio is far too big for a small club?
Last edited by kevinchess1 on Wed Jun 20 2018 7:06pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by BeautifulSunshine » Wed Jun 20 2018 6:35pm

kevinchess1 wrote:So you’re not really in favour of selling anything?
Don’t you think our far too big for a small club?
By selling at a loss you need the next share to make:
1. The loss of the old share back
PLUS
2. Thena further profit on the new share
In effect you are in a hole, need to rise high enough to get to ground level then climb a ladder further up.

As long as a share is both paying a good dividend and the future prospects are positive I, personally, see no reason to sell for a loss.
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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by garindan » Wed Jun 20 2018 7:48pm

kevinchess1 wrote:So you’re not really in favour of selling anything?
Don’t you think our portfolio is far too big for a small club?
This is what I meant from core shares and the other two. So taking a position as prices develop and selling when right for us is my suggestion. That way we can bring it down to 4/5 core shares over different markets, rather than 6 we currently have.

Personally, I don't think it is in the Club's interest to sell two shares for the sake of it just to reduce the size of the portfolio right now. If the sale makes sense then yes we should consider it but we already own these shares and selling them short of potential value, or at least below break even when the scope for gain is there seems the wrong way to go about things. Hence why I suggest we watch what happens with the world cup, as there is a potentially lucrative gain to be had if things pan out well. It would be a mistake to avoid this potential just because we feel we are a few shares too heavy at the moment. We may want to consider selling Vodafone if it gets to an even point but this is something we need to consider options on.

So my personal view is yes, we should sell, but not just for the sake of it.
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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by Beachboy » Thu Jun 21 2018 7:45am

Seems like a reasonable approach to me for where we currently stand. Thanks for pulling the proposal together for discussion.

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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by kevinchess1 » Sat Jun 23 2018 11:55am

Thunderfog, it's naive to think we can sell every share at a profit
The clubs refusal to sell shares at a loss got us into this mess inb the first place
We could have salvage something from the C debacle but wouldn't sell at a loss and lost even more
Have we learnt nothing from that?
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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by kevinchess1 » Sat Jun 23 2018 12:02pm

garindan
EVERY single share we own is DOWN from the price we paid
Since you posted to have a look at our portfolio we have made 2 more purchases and sold nothing
Made only one sale this year and 2 last year
In the 3 years since our first purchase we have lost about 15% of our money
whilst the stock market has risen by about the same amount
Don't know if there is a list
but I suspect we are one of the worse performing Shares clubs there is
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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by BeautifulSunshine » Sun Jun 24 2018 3:11pm

garindan wrote:Greene King
- the brokers tip this one to be the big winner if England progress out the group stages at the world cup
England achieved their most emphatic World Cup result as Harry Kane's hat-trick helped them thrash a poor Panama side and reach the last 16.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/44439183
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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by BeautifulSunshine » Sun Jun 24 2018 6:16pm

Also England whitewash Australia 5-0 in One Day International 5 series. The first ever whitewash of Australia by England.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/live/cricket/4387220
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Re: Thoughts - our existing portfolio of long-term shares

Post by BeautifulSunshine » Wed Jul 04 2018 6:20am

Thunderfog wrote:
garindan wrote:Greene King
- the brokers tip this one to be the big winner if England progress out the group stages at the world cup
England achieved their most emphatic World Cup result as Harry Kane's hat-trick helped them thrash a poor Panama side and reach the last 16.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/44439183
England won a World Cup penalty shootout for the first time on a night of high drama in Moscow, overcoming Colombia to secure a quarter-final meeting with Sweden.

Amid a fevered atmosphere inside Spartak Stadium, Eric Dier scored the winning kick after Jordan Pickford's brilliant save from Carlos Bacca.
And so England progress to the quarter finals...

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/44610244
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