Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19
Posted: Thu Apr 09 2020 4:41pm
I was going to buy you one of these for Easter: https://www.newchic.com/womens-hats-412 ... mmds=theme 
Wrong - you're thinking of yourself there.Richard Frost wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09 2020 4:28pmNothing is certain, it is all a presumption and relatively unimportant. "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"expressman33 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09 2020 3:34pmhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/expressman33 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21 2020 2:35pmSome stats https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
April 3 (GMT)
Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
In relation to the coronavirus it is:
My understanding has a full stop.Estimates based on science, estimates based on science, and statistics.
