Coronavirus/COVID-19

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blythburgh
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by blythburgh » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:56 am

Sarah wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:38 pm
Hey, no! Those folks running the country in the 1980s weren't the ones growing up in it. Generation X aren't the problem here, most of us are still working, getting on with being productive in an increasingly stressful world and paying taxes. I hear much more prevalent attitudes of entitlement amongst complacent retirees, sitting fortuitously in their inflated houses on their final salary pensions and voting brexit as-if crashing the economy for no good reason won't even affect them. Then there's those Millennials that obviously don't know they're born, as has been said of every generation before them...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10 ... s-approach
It is believed that in particular, millennial men have been the worst offenders at failing to reduce their contact with other people, continuing to visit pubs, travel widely and take part in other social events, despite being told that doing so risks the lives of the elderly and vulnerable.
It is not all pensioners who own their own property or have a private pension. And not all pensioners voted for Brexit.

But some are sitting very pretty. MP's are pleading with 2nd homers to stay put. They could spread the virus and local health providers will be stretched to breaking point without them.

Too late for Southwold as the regional news reported they have arrived. One older couple were interviewed and the outside of their 2nd home was featured. If that went on the market in normal times it would be sold for £1 to £2 million judging by size and especially position. The town was heaving with the fleeing 2nd homers.

In Italy the virus was in the northern Lombardy region. A leak to the media that there was going to be a clampdown on travel and some fled to family in other parts of Italy taking the virus with them.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by kevinchess1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:21 am

I think they should stop filming Casualty and Holby City so that the staff can help out with Coronavirus :thumbup:
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by kevinchess1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 am

kevinchess1 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:34 pm
macliam wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:05 pm
COVID Rhapsody
When some says Corona to me I give them a few lines of This Changing it to Corana

AND

Covid 19 gets you a few lines of This changing the words to fit
Have now started singing that ‘Carpenters Classic ‘
‘What The world needs now is gloves, more gloves!’
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pabenny
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by pabenny » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:40 am

On mortality rates:
I wouldn't get too concerned about headline numbers showing high rates

a) first problem is the denominator - ie the number of cases. This only tells you the number of confirmed cases. It doesn't include all those who have mild or moderate symptoms who simply self isolate and don't consult a doctor.

b) the second problem is the numerator - the number of fatalities. As the news reports of the first UK deaths pointed out, those dying were already in poor health. If you're old or sick or old and sick, you're more likely to die if you contract the virus.

So we have an understated total number of cases and a overweight number of deaths giving an apparently high mortality rate.

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by blythburgh » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:42 am

I agree with pabenny it is an apparently high mortality rate and the numbers are badly skewed as so few are tested.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by macliam » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:39 am

pabenny wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:40 am
On mortality rates:
I wouldn't get too concerned about headline numbers showing high rates

a) first problem is the denominator - ie the number of cases. This only tells you the number of confirmed cases. It doesn't include all those who have mild or moderate symptoms who simply self isolate and don't consult a doctor.

b) the second problem is the numerator - the number of fatalities. As the news reports of the first UK deaths pointed out, those dying were already in poor health. If you're old or sick or old and sick, you're more likely to die if you contract the virus.

So we have an understated total number of cases and a overweight number of deaths giving an apparently high mortality rate.
What you're saying is, ignore the figures we know.... because there MIGHT be a big number we don't know and we'll count this unknown number on the positive side. So, to extend this, you are saying that should ignore the fact that 99% of people who take strychnine die, because, as far as we know, most people don't take strychnine. Therefore strychnine isn't dangerous......

I agree that, as of now, very few people have been tested, but mortality rates are not worked out as a percentage of the total population, but as a percentage of the AFFECTED population. IF the virus is only killing those "with underlying conditions", you would expect the majority of those affected to survive... and this is the case, BUT currently the size of the minority who die is worryingly large and suggests an eventual outturn far higher than published estimates.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by macliam » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:49 am

blythburgh wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:56 am
It is not all pensioners who own their own property or have a private pension. And not all pensioners voted for Brexit.

But some are sitting very pretty. MP's are pleading with 2nd homers to stay put. They could spread the virus and local health providers will be stretched to breaking point without them.

Too late for Southwold as the regional news reported they have arrived. One older couple were interviewed and the outside of their 2nd home was featured. If that went on the market in normal times it would be sold for £1 to £2 million judging by size and especially position. The town was heaving with the fleeing 2nd homers.

In Italy the virus was in the northern Lombardy region. A leak to the media that there was going to be a clampdown on travel and some fled to family in other parts of Italy taking the virus with them.
Yesterday morning I took some provisions to an older friend up towards Aldeburgh. I expected the "back road" to be fairly clear, considering recent news - but it was almost nose-to-tail in parts....all moving up the Sufolk coast. Today I notice that a couple who bought a neighbouring house, but were still living near London, are here.

I expect the number of cases in Suffolk to rocket, due to all these kind second-homers from London moving from their heavily infected area to somewhere relatively unscathed. Thanks chaps, good to see we are learning from Italy.

PS - how many second-homers are pensioners?
Last edited by macliam on Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by pabenny » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:04 am

macliam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:39 am
What you're saying is, ignore the figures we know....
I'm not exactly. I'm saying that those figures could mislead (for the reasons given) and therefore treat with caution. And that does all go on one side of the scale because it's the denominator that's almost certainly understated. The number of fatalities *is* known.

Are you suggesting that the mortality rate for those who contract the illness will be in double figures?
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by kevinchess1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:08 am

The news on TV is so depressing I am beginning to miss Brexit. :(
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by expressman33 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:29 am

Trump on malaria drug for COVID-19

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1MyHPm ... XCq9M0owiE

"Dr. Anthony Fauci said there is not enough evidence to support claims that hydrox-chloroquine is effective in combatting COVID-19."
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