Coronavirus/COVID-19

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macliam
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by macliam » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:23 pm

pabenny wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:04 am
macliam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:39 am
What you're saying is, ignore the figures we know....
I'm not exactly. I'm saying that those figures could mislead (for the reasons given) and therefore treat with caution. And that does all go on one side of the scale because it's the denominator that's almost certainly understated. The number of fatalities *is* known.

Are you suggesting that the mortality rate for those who contract the illness will be in double figures?
... as are the number of recoveries.

I'm suggesting that we can only count the things we count, we will only know the outcome when it comes out. However, of the known affected population, the mortality rate is far higher than current estimates of mortality suggest - and to presume that this is just an anomaly plays into the hands of those who deny the seriousness of the problem or wish to downplay the risk.

Remember, 1% of the population is still 600,000 people.
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Oggy
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by Oggy » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:40 pm

kevinchess1 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:21 am
I think they should stop filming Casualty and Holby City so that the staff can help out with Coronavirus :thumbup:
Dianne Abbott said that! :lol:
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by kevinchess1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:38 pm

I read/seen stuff about making a hot drink from a lemon
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by macliam » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:15 pm

Interesting, if true, - is this the reason for the ridiculous "herd immunity" stance?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... people-die

Seems it's a choice between Socialist and Sociopath.......
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by macliam » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:53 pm

Image
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

Never mind "Go Home Idiots", maybe "Stay Home Idiots"
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by kevinchess1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 pm

macliam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:39 am
pabenny wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:40 am
On mortality rates:
I wouldn't get too concerned about headline numbers showing high rates

a) first problem is the denominator - ie the number of cases. This only tells you the number of confirmed cases. It doesn't include all those who have mild or moderate symptoms who simply self isolate and don't consult a doctor.

b) the second problem is the numerator - the number of fatalities. As the news reports of the first UK deaths pointed out, those dying were already in poor health. If you're old or sick or old and sick, you're more likely to die if you contract the virus.

So we have an understated total number of cases and a overweight number of deaths giving an apparently high mortality rate.
What you're saying is, ignore the figures we know.... because there MIGHT be a big number we don't know and we'll count this unknown number on the positive side. So, to extend this, you are saying that should ignore the fact that 99% of people who take strychnine die, because, as far as we know, most people don't take strychnine. Therefore strychnine isn't dangerous....
He's not saying that at all
Say 1,000 get it and 30 die that's 3% except it isn't because a lot more people will get it and not die but won't be recorded in the figures
2 further points: How many of the people who died were actually killed by the virus? It's difficult to say. As I posted earlier if you die in a pub fire you could argue it was because you had a drink problem
And my 2nd point is strychnine isn't dangerous if you don't take it
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by kevinchess1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:04 pm

macliam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:53 pm
Image
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

Never mind "Go Home Idiots", maybe "Stay Home Idiots"
Well said

I went for a lovely long walk in the park today and couldn't believe the amount of idiots who were out and about :(
Morons
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by Boro Boy » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:21 pm

kevinchess1 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:04 pm
macliam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:53 pm
Image
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

Never mind "Go Home Idiots", maybe "Stay Home Idiots"
Well said

I went for a lovely long walk in the park today and couldn't believe the amount of idiots who were out and about :(
Morons
:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by macliam » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:08 pm

kevinchess1 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 pm
macliam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:39 am
What you're saying is, ignore the figures we know.... because there MIGHT be a big number we don't know and we'll count this unknown number on the positive side. So, to extend this, you are saying that should ignore the fact that 99% of people who take strychnine die, because, as far as we know, most people don't take strychnine. Therefore strychnine isn't dangerous....
He's not saying that at all
Say 1,000 get it and 30 die that's 3% except it isn't because a lot more people will get it and not die but won't be recorded in the figures
2 further points: How many of the people who died were actually killed by the virus? It's difficult to say. As I posted earlier if you die in a pub fire you could argue it was because you had a drink problem
And my 2nd point is strychnine isn't dangerous if you don't take it
Sorry kev, I disagree. You sound like Murphy, who named his sons Pat, Mick and Wang Po because every third child born is Chinese.

You can't play with numbers you don't know - you can take them into account, you can caveat any answer, but you can't use them. The fact is that around 12% of those proven to have COVID-19 are dying of it - and for government figures to play true, the "hidden" incidence of COVID-19 would have to be 100 times higher than that registered so far. As to your second point, you daughter will be able to tell you how lightly (not) medics take the registered cause of death - and if COVID-19 is even a contributory factor, it is a cause.

As for your last point.... if what you say is true, then why is it a controlled substance? why aren't guns available to all, because "guns don't kill, people do"? It's like saying that you have to have a licence to drive and than claiming that nobody without a license drives..

I'm not claiming armageddon, but neither am I giving deniers any wiggle room - we need to stop this virus, because there is no vaccine, no cure and no treatment - this isn't the flu.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by kevinchess1 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:39 am

And now McDonald’s is closing completely
We really are in the end times
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