another pointless bridge?

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macliam
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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by macliam » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:13 pm

Constantine wrote:
macliam wrote:....
Best open your eyes - sleepwalking rarely has a good ending.

My cousin in Limerick is a commercial agent. In the past month or so she has had seven UK-based technology companies looking at premises there, so it looks as if it's not only the finance houses that are looking to relocate. Maybe that's why the change in GDP in the UK fell from 1.9% to 1.8% in 2017, whereas in Ireland it grew from 5.2% to 7.8%.
On the other hand Ireland is the one EU nation that will suffer most from Brexit.

Ireland's GDP will take a 4.3% hit in a free trade agreement-style Brexit, and a 7% hit if the UK walks away from talks without a deal.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ireland-w ... ent-2018-2
Is that a little schadenfreude - or are you, like the DUP, of the opinion that Ireland is the cause of the UK's Brexit woes? Whatever the case, it's still predicted to have higher GDP increases than the UK will in either event and it will still have the benefit and stability of EU membership. Short-term hits due to imposed customs constraints and access issues are likely to be resolved quicker than re-building trading relationships with partners you've just shafted.
planteria wrote:
macliam wrote:Best open your eyes - sleepwalking rarely has a good ending.
...or are the BBC-led population actually the ones who are sleep walking?

the goons standing around with the placards they've been supplied, protesting against Brexit outside the Tory conference, actually believe that they are rebelling against 'Authority' :crazy:. the rebels are the expansive, open-minded internationalists with the ability to see through the continuing Project Fear.
Still claiming everything to be "Project Fear", eh? So be it, we'll just keep an eye on the relative GDP figures, shall we - or do you think those too are affected by Remainer propaganda? Stick with Boris - he'd never let you down, would he?!!
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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by Boro Boy » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:53 pm

macliam wrote:
Boro Boy wrote:
macliam wrote:Would he put a nice big Customs post in the middle? :mrgreen:

After all, his other policies suggest they'll need it..............
Perhaps it may be the EU who needs the erect any future customs posts to stop our more competitively priced items flooding there market...!?!
Best open your eyes - sleepwalking rarely has a good ending.

My cousin in Limerick is a commercial agent. In the past month or so she has had seven UK-based technology companies looking at premises there, so it looks as if it's not only the finance houses that are looking to relocate. Maybe that's why the change in GDP in the UK fell from 1.9% to 1.8% in 2017, whereas in Ireland it grew from 5.2% to 7.8%.
When you start from such a low base point a few head counts makes a massive percentage change...!

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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by Boro Boy » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:57 pm

Chadwick wrote:
Boro Boy wrote:Perhaps it may be the EU who needs the erect any future customs posts to stop our more competitively priced items flooding there market...!?!
Like our cars?
Wine?
Far Eastern electronics?
Jingoism?

Yes we lost fridge making, nearly lost the fishing industry and were told to reduce our dairy production to allow in EU dairy goods so ending that manipulation should see the rebirth of new industries in the UK.

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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by macliam » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:05 am

Boro Boy wrote:
macliam wrote:...Maybe that's why the change in GDP in the UK fell from 1.9% to 1.8% in 2017, whereas in Ireland it grew from 5.2% to 7.8%.
When you start from such a low base point a few head counts makes a massive percentage change...!
Keep telling yourself that. So you'd rather have a stagnant economy than a growing one...... interesting view of economics, but you may well get what you wish for.
Boro Boy wrote:
Chadwick wrote:
Boro Boy wrote:Perhaps it may be the EU who needs the erect any future customs posts to stop our more competitively priced items flooding there market...!?!
Like our cars?
Wine?
Far Eastern electronics?
Jingoism?

Yes we lost fridge making, nearly lost the fishing industry and were told to reduce our dairy production to allow in EU dairy goods so ending that manipulation should see the rebirth of new industries in the UK.
Hmmm, your slant on this is interesting. Predicatable, but interesting.
1) White goods were largely lost because UK manufacturers were bought out, or sought the benefits of large-scale manufacture abroad (Dyson anyone?). Market driven, nothing to do with the EU and unlikely to change post-Brexit.

2) UK fishing quotas are managed (or should that be mismanaged) by the UK government not the EU and this article suggests it won't get better post-Brexit. Given the fact that many of the UK quota holders are foreign, I don't think you'll be seeing any huge fishing fleets heading out of Grimsby or Yarmouth any time soon....

3) By whom were the UK "told to reduce our dairy production"? I think you'll find that EU dairy subsidies were cut when Russia stopped taking EU dairy products. This was not to make the UK "allow in EU dairy goods" as we've been importing them for decades, but was to reduce surplus production across the EU. UK farmers then decided for themselves that, without subsidies, dairy wasn't cost-effective..... so you'll be likely to pay a lot more for milk, butter and cheese, post-Brexit.

Anything else you'd like to blame on the EU? Maybe they're responsible for closing local breweries? Maybe they forced the UK to sell off its industries? Decisions by successive governments led to a service economy in the UK, so losing any of that is going to hurt..... and that won't be an EU decision either.
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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by blythburgh » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:16 am

Not bothering to comment as those with blinkers on will ignore anything they do now want to see
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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by Chadwick » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:48 am

Boro Boy wrote: we lost fridge making,
Yes, in the early 20th century we were world leaders in the production of fridges. I think Scottish brains were behind the development of the early technology.

But the EU is not responsible for the decline. It was purely a case of market forces and social politics.

Originally domestic appliances were the preserve of the middle class. It is only post WW2 that the working class started purchasing washing machines, electric cookers, fridges etc in significant quantities. The UK industrial base was at this point mainly smaller regional companies, protected by post-war tariff barriers. The products themselves were fairly basic - housewives were expected to appreciate the technology even if it didn't quite suit their needs. (It wasn't until the 1960s that any real market research was done).

What changed was driven by the Italians in the 50s and 60s. Their industry focussed on the newly emerging cheaper end of the market, enabled to some extent by Italian labour costs being relatively lower than other European countries. Big brands like Zanuusi, Indesit, Candy, Ignis, quickly established large shares of the Italian market. They also sold white label goods to UK manufacturers and retailers to badge as their own, bring Italian design into the home.

By the mid 1970s, the market for new sales was largely fulfilled and demand switched to replacement. Throughout the 80s and 90s, the market for refrigerating products in the UK remained more or less static, except for cyclical swings in the economy in general. The UK continued to produce fridges in the 80s and 90s, but as sales levelled out, the prices dropped due to competition, meaning fridge production was increasingly less valuable. There followed a period of consolidation where bigger brands bought out smaller ones to buy a bigger share of the market and to consolidate manufacturing and marketing efforts. Redundancies followed (about half the workforce was laid off between 1980 and 2000), adding further temporary cost to the manufacturers. Brand loyalty is high in the UK, making the UK companies an attractive target for takeover at a time when they were struggling to make good profits. By 2002, there were no UK companies in the top 5 ultimate owners, despite brands such as Hotpoint, Lec and Electrolux still dominating the market.

Alongside this change was the rise of the Far East manufacturers. Put simply, it was cheaper to source parts and finished goods from Korea and (later) China. Cheaper than the EU certainly, and the proportion of Italian-manufactured devices gave way to first Eastern Europe (Turkey especially) and then the Far East.

In 1985, the EU accounted for 86% of imported fridges, freezers etc. By 2000, it was 57%.
Imports from the rest of the world (excl the US) have risen from 12% to 38% over the same period.


In conclusion, we witnessed the refrigeration industry maturing over the second half of the 20th century, and that has been one driver for change. Italian imports had dominated the mass-market before we joined the EC and have actually lost out to non-EU producers since then. The rise of Far Eastern manufacturing has further reduced our reliance on the EU. Joining the EC did not cause the decline of the British fridge making industry, and neither will leaving it revitalise it. The economics behind this niche of commodity mass-manufacturing will follow the cheapest route to market.
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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by blythburgh » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:19 am

planteria wrote:
the goons standing around with the placards they've been supplied, protesting against Brexit outside the Tory conference,
If I could have got there I would have been holding a placard and I am no goon. Nor would i ever call a protester with a pro brexit placard a goon. I would have more respect for them even though I disagree with them
Keep smiling because the light at the end of someone's tunnel may be you, Ron Cheneler

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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by Boro Boy » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:16 pm

macliam wrote:
2) UK fishing quotas are managed (or should that be mismanaged) by the UK government not the EU and this article suggests it won't get better post-Brexit. Given the fact that many of the UK quota holders are foreign, I don't think you'll be seeing any huge fishing fleets heading out of Grimsby or Yarmouth any time soon....

To keep this readable lets look at the comment you made which is most wrong: The EU imposes the Common Fisheries Policy which admittedly the UK signed up to but it means the following:

The theory is that if fish move across European waters than it makes sense to treat the whole of Europe as one fishery with universal rules over movement, control and regulation applying to all member nations equally. However, the twelve miles extending from the shoreline of each nation are still sovereign waters of that country, with the common EEZ (Across the world countries have an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) which extends 200 nautical miles from the country’s coastline. Within this zone each country can exploit, control and manage the sea in any way they wish. Within Europe it was seen as beneficial to have a more harmonious system – if fishermen from different EU nations were to fish the same waters it was seen as beneficial to bring them all together under the same legislation and rules. The Common Fisheries Policy therefore stated that member nations would only control an area of sea extending twelve miles out from their coastline.) only extending from this point onwards. This means that Britain (like all other EU nations) only really controls this twelve mile zone and any control or conservation measures which are put forward can only be enforced inside this small zone – any measures extending beyond this zone and into Europe’s EEZ would require the agreement of all member nations.

From a British perspective this shared EEZ can be seen as a very bad deal. In 2015, EU vessels caught 683,000 tonnes of fish worth £484 million in UK waters, but UK vessels only caught 111,000 tonnes worth £114 million revenue in EU member states’ waters. In parts of the Celtic Sea (which prior to the CFP would have been controlled by the UK) French fishermen have the right to catch three times more Dover sole and four times more cod than British fishermen. Around 40% of the Danish fishing fleet’s total catch comes from the 200-mile zone which Britain would control if it was not in the CFP, and some Danish fishing communities rely entirely on catching fish within the bounds of what used to be Britain’s territorial waters. Clearly the Common Fisheries Policy and its shared EEZ has been immensely beneficial to some groups within Europe’s fishing industry, but those who now have to share what used to be their fishing grounds with others may not take such a positive view.

The shared EEZ can also lead to conflict. For example French scallop fishermen reacted with violence when British fishermen were dredging for scallops just outside of the French twelve mile zone during a period when the French were refraining from scallop fishing to allow stocks to recover. However, since the British fishermen were outside of French waters and (just) within the EU Exclusive Economic Zone they were doing nothing wrong, although this so-called Scallop War does underline the issues of countries only controlling a small proportion of the seas around their nation. The same can be seen in Britain’s attempts to ban pair-trawling for bass. This method of commercial fishing sees two vessels moving through the sea with a vast net between them. While being a highly effective method of fishing it is destructive and has been responsible for large numbers of dolphins and porpoises being killed by the nets. Britain banned pair trawling for bass in 2004 due but as this can only be enforced within twelve miles of Britain’s coastline other EU vessels can still pair trawl 12½ miles off the UK coast and throw back into the sea the dead fish it doesn't want and those which keep it within its quota; unfortunately dead fish don't revive once they return to the sea. Foreign quotas within the British EEZ once we leave the EU unless we are foolish enough to bargain this right away.


There - no side of the bus politics here - only facts (thanks to British Sea Fishing for help with the above text) that the British Fishing Fleet would be better off outside the EU. Similar concerns effected Icelands decision to reject any thoughts of EU membership.

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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by macliam » Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:03 am

So British Sea Fishing think they'll be better off when the only inshore fishing they can access is around the UK, do they - because you can be sure that everyone else is going to protect their inshore fisheries to the hilt. The UK imports 60-80% of the fish sold, but also exports fish and seafood that is not widely consumed within the UK (squid, spider crab, etc.) So, will the UK population suddenly decide to buy fish they never ate before? Will UK waters support the UK market - and supply the types of fish currently consumed? Will imported fish become more expensive to support an inefficient UK fleet? Will there still be a market for the stuff we don't eat (because there wasn't before..)?

When it comes to any "shared" resource, the fishermen will be in the same position as now, or worse. Did you even read the report I attached re fisheries? - because that tells you that the UK government has done zip to help UK fisheries within the EU and is unlikely to do any more after Brexit. Other EU states have supported their industries, built bigger fleets, negotiated better quotas, etc. Then we come to the market for the fish caught ...... how is that going to be helped by increasing red tape? Of course, the USA and China are just dying to buy our mackerel, because they don't have fish of their own, do they? Equally, what is going to happen to the foreign companies who operate UK fishing boats in order to access UK quotas? Will they stay or will they re-flag?

British Sea Fishing think everything will be rosy after Brexit..... we'll see.
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Re: another pointless bridge?

Post by Boro Boy » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:08 am

British fishermen want to retain an EEZ which is British and not raped and pillaged by Danish or other foreign fishing fleets. Yes there is no perfect answer but control of our own fishing grounds is a massive step forward.

Iceland who are more dependant of fishing rejected EU Membership and retained control of their own waters.

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