What Are You Stockpiling for Coronavirus?

[Boro Boy]

One of the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures attempted to explain & demonstrate herd immunity at a level that children (or maybe even the Johnson government) could understand at the end of last year. It can be seen here on youtube - skip to 22 mins if you don't want to watch the whole episode:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_q4DrUHKC0Q

More people should view this simplistic, straight forward explanation above of Herd Immunity - it doesn't really explain the cost of getting to the "sweet spot" of 60% immune "herd"

• 60% of 66 Million approx. UK population = 44 Million
  Current death rate varies country to country from 1% of those infected to 2.5%
  Worst scenario of 2.5% of UK population infected 44 Million = 1 Million Deaths...!!!!
  Best case scenario of 1% = 400,000 deaths

• The crazy thing is 50% of the people catching the virus will only be effected with a mild cold symptoms of not even realise they have the virus and just become a carrier (the people to avoid) the remaining 50% will suffer serious or critical symptoms.

Either way phenomenal figures and all the more justification for restrictions! Flattening the growth curve to ensure people are not turned away from hospital (meaning doctors have to make life/death decisions) is a necessity - again pointing to the necessity for isolation and slowing the spread.

A relative isolating in Milan tells me that she has to have a licence to walk her dog and if stopped she could be arrested for not carrying it - amazing restrictive practices (to protect the majority and slowing spread) occurring in Italy and the experts say we are three and a half weeks behind the position Italy is in presently...

Interesting times.

Italy has more beds than the NHS and it still can't cope and its leaving its doctors to make life and death decisions for their patients... The problems for Italy seem to be getting worse and the experts are saying we in the UK are three and a half weeks behind what is happening there: https://www.france24.com/en/20200313-it ... 2463152530

[macliam]

Why are the overpriced handwashes/hand sanistisers sold out? Surely soap, washing up liquid, shower gel etc has the same effect?

Soap is fine when you have access to water to wash your hands.
A lot of buses, banks, shops and other public spaces do not have washing facilities - the hand gel is useful there.

Not really - this is not bacteria, it is virus ...... to be effective hands need to be washed under hot water for 20 seconds. A quick squirt of hand gel will do little if anything at all.

[macliam]

Italy has more beds than the NHS and it still can't cope and its leaving its doctors to make life and death decisions for their patients... The problems for Italy seem to be getting worse and the experts are saying we in the UK are three and a half weeks behind what is happening there: https://www.france24.com/en/20200313-it ... 2463152530

The virus in Italy had already spread within the population before it was even noticed - unfortunately for italy, it has been the canary for the rest of us. Social distancing was not put in place until late there (which is why the UKs earlier decisions are strange) and they are paying the penalty in a steep infection curve.

The same does NOT have to happen here - the key is to limit exposure to the virus and to limit the opportunity for infection by the virus..... that way we can slow the takeup dramatically and give ourseleves (and the NHS) more time to cope.

Unfortunately, the information being given out in the UK is piecemeal, weak and/or garbled (and sometimes plain wrong). Unlike in Ireland, where politicians have handed public education to the experts in the health service, here we have Matt Hancock, who has sod-all expertise, being interviewed. Is he a clinician? NO, Is he an operational health worker? NO, Is he a virologist, or an epidemiologist? NO. He's just another Jeremy Hunt, spouting things he has been told by others.

In Ireland, for the past 2 weeks, a prime-time chat show has devoted extended periods to the real experts, so they have an opportunity to explain WHY the public are being asked to do things. RTÉ Player is available in the UK - take a look.

Limit exposure, Limit infection. Simples.

[Boro Boy]

Italy has more beds than the NHS and it still can't cope and its leaving its doctors to make life and death decisions for their patients... The problems for Italy seem to be getting worse and the experts are saying we in the UK are three and a half weeks behind what is happening there: https://www.france24.com/en/20200313-it ... 2463152530

The virus in Italy had already spread within the population before it was even noticed - unfortunately for italy, it has been the canary for the rest of us. Social distancing was not put in place until late there (which is why the UKs earlier decisions are strange) and they are paying the penalty in a steep infection curve.

The same does NOT have to happen here - the key is to limit exposure to the virus and to limit the opportunity for infection by the virus..... that way we can slow the takeup dramatically and give ourseleves (and the NHS) more time to cope.

Unfortunately, the information being given out in the UK is piecemeal, weak and/or garbled (and sometimes plain wrong). Unlike in Ireland, where politicians have handed public education to the experts in the health service, here we have Matt Hancock, who has sod-all expertise, being interviewed. Is he a clinician? NO, Is he an operational health worker? NO, Is he a virologist, or an epidemiologist? NO. He's just another Jeremy Hunt, spouting things he has been told by others.

In Ireland, for the past 2 weeks, a prime-time chat show has devoted extended periods to the real experts, so they have an opportunity to explain WHY the public are being asked to do things. RTÉ Player is available in the UK - take a look.

Limit exposure, Limit infection. Simples.

Whilst remembering Italy is three and a half weeks ahead of the UK there is room for differing experience predictions but the text was a summary based on percentages of existing experiences. I think its worth remembering that a high proportion of people infected will not even know they have the virus and as such become carriers unknowingly infecting others. So whether the Italians speed of reaction would be a major factor has to be classed as an unknown or immeasurable factor at this early stage.

Or to quote you, as you so delicately put it: "...a virus we know sod all about"!!!

Factors we do know about: Italy is it has an aging population of which a high percentage are smokers.

I like how you wrongly think (example) that all the guys back at Houston Control have to have been astronauts or the whole Mars space shot is never going to work...! A lack of insight that initially sounds logical but is actually far from reality and has no substance! Matt Hancock is working in unknown territory and I am guessing they don't want to cause mass panic by spouting out "oh, and a Million of you folks out there are going to die!" I would hope he is working to the best of his ability and using the best advisors. I have know idea why you think you know better than him?

[macliam]

So are you suggesting that any politician is worth more than a fart in a collander when it comes to a real crisis? Are you that naive?

Try proving me wrong - but you won't find it by looking at the UK because the government are back-pedalling faster than Nelly the Elephant on a unicycle climbing a mountain, as their unbelievable face-saving "strategies" unwind. First we had the "Herd immunity" fiasco, then we had the "no need for self-isolation" and now we have the "no need to shut schools or limit public gatherings" when EVERY other country is doing so. Finally we have the Hancock's half-hour suggestion that respirators can be built by Ford at the drop of a hat!!

I studied epidemiology, what's your expertise? We know sod all about this particular strain of coronavirus, but we know a great deal about epidemics (and pandemics) in general. It is a proven fact that an unchecked viral epidemic will evolve at a given rate in an unprotected population. The greater the percentage of infection in an unprotected population, the greater the rate of infection. The longer it takes for any protection to be afforded, the more people will be infected in a shorter time.... and time is the essence. Italy was first and was slow to react, that is why Italy is as it is. Germany has four times the number of registered infections, but one-third of the deaths to date. France has four times the number of cases and less than four times the number of deaths - but both saw the number of cases increase by almost 4 times the increase in the UK yesterday.

It's not guesswork, it's science.

[Boro Boy]

So are you suggesting that any politician is worth more than a fart in a collander when it comes to a real crisis? Are you that naive?

Try proving me wrong - but you won't find it by looking at the UK because the government are back-pedalling faster than Nelly the Elephant on a unicycle climbing a mountain, as their unbelievable face-saving "strategies" unwind. First we had the "Herd immunity" fiasco, then we had the "no need for self-isolation" and now we have the "no need to shut schools or limit public gatherings" when EVERY other country is doing so. Finally we have the Hancock's half-hour suggestion that respirators can be built by Ford at the drop of a hat!!

I studied epidemiology, what's your expertise? We know sod all about this particular strain of coronavirus, but we know a great deal about epidemics (and pandemics) in general. It is a proven fact that an unchecked viral epidemic will evolve at a given rate in an unprotected population. The greater the percentage of infection in an unprotected population, the greater the rate of infection. The longer it takes for any protection to be afforded, the more people will be infected in a shorter time.... and time is the essence. Italy was first and was slow to react, that is why Italy is as it is. Germany has four times the number of registered infections, but one-third of the deaths to date. France has four times the number of cases and less than four times the number of deaths - but both saw the number of cases increase by almost 4 times the increase in the UK yesterday.

It's not guesswork, it's science.

You really do believe things are that simplistic don't you? Like I said Italy has the oldest aging populations in Europe and most of them smoke - this isn't a factor in your world...

Why don't you revert to your normal "Know sod all" quotes - oh you did...!

[blythburgh]

The Anglican church is taking more steps and faster than the Govt. IMHO. No communion wine for the congregation for the last couple of weeks. No food from this week so no after church coffee, coffee mornings cancelled, services in homes for the elderly cancelled.

If only the Govt. was moving as fast. But at least Johnson is not like Trump who said it was a hoax originally

[Chadwick]

This is an interesting explanation of how social distancing and quarantining work, explained through the medium of bouncing balls.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... Fstory-ans

[macliam]

You really do believe things are that simplistic don't you? Like I said Italy has the oldest aging populations in Europe and most of them smoke - this isn't a factor in your world...

Why don't you revert to your normal "Know sod all" quotes - oh you did...!

Please keep your uninformed comments to a minimum - it is idiots on social media who will cause the greatest damage, particularly those who spent the last three years telling everyone how useless experts are.

It is not "simplistic" at all, it is very complex, but backed by past experience. What is simplistic is your assumption that what is happening in Italy is anything more than an example of what could happen here...... or looking for some "reasons" why Italy is "different" and we will all be safe.

I will state the FACTS once again

a) An unchecked virus in the willd will infect at a predicatable rate - the rate of infection can be slowed, but not checked, by relatively simple behavioural changes. Social distancing and hygiene will slow the rate at which infection occurs, affording more time and resource to treat the infected.

b) 40-60% of the population will become infected, according to data from previous epidemics. It is not the final number of cases, but the time it takes to reach that number that is important. There are still many who are infected but not tested and many at risk of infection. Some people will prove resistant, the virus may mutate to a less serious form and/or a vaccine may innoculate the population against further spread.

c) The mortality rate for those infected is c3.4%, but as a percentage of outcomes, it is higher. Over time, this may be seen as a hiatus and the mortlity rate may drop - the floor is about 1%, but we don't know enough about this virus to predict whther or how quicly it may fall.

d) Mortality is far more likely for the over 60s and those with pre-existing heart or respiratory conditions. There is concern that past exposure to coronavirus in another form may make matters worse. However, it is NOT a given that exposure to the virus will provide immunity from further attacks - it may just reduce the impact but still leave the infected person as a carrier.

As well as those trying to model the current data and provide indications of the best methods to MANAGE the situation, there are many, many others trying to answer the questions we have about this particular strain.... about mortality, about factors for mortality, about immunity, about mutation of the virus ...... and then there are those engaged in looking for a vaccine. Managing all the information coming from different people is going to be key, so we don't miss anything..... and part of that management is ignoring presupposition and prejudice.

We can do our bit - limit your opportunity for infection by reducing contact and washing hands - but also be cautious about suggestions of "easy answers" and hearsay.

Be careful out there.

[macliam]

Somebody has FINALLY poked the UK government to take some action... social distancing - whatever next?

The reason appears to be that the virus is rampant - particularly in London (which is, of course, the only place that matters )

Most of the reasoning is exactly what I have previously suggested (and in line with our neighbours) and the stated objective is to help the NHS keep its head above water.

There is also a little truth escaping about the likelihood of any form of immunity although the suggested mortality rate (<1%) is WAAAAAY less than suggested elsewhere and is even on the low side for other outbreaks.

At least there is information coming from the people who know..... even if it does seem a little "manicured".