Club investment strategy discussion thread

Discussion of the proposed Cashback Investment Club

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richard@imutual
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by richard@imutual » Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:51 pm

I just don't get the logic of mandating that the funds be invested in PGM (which, at the time of writing, now represents nearly half of our entire portfolio!)
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garindan
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by garindan » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:23 pm

richard@imutual wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:51 pm
I just don't get the logic of mandating that the funds be invested in PGM (which, at the time of writing, now represents nearly half of our entire portfolio!)
Personally, I'd have sold all the bluechip shares a number of weeks ago and already have put them in PGM and made all the money back even before the last few days of PGM share upturn. My view then was and it still remains that there is plenty of life in the share to still do this. I don't have this feeling with any of the other shares at the moment and I don't know enough about any other "new" shares to replicate the aim. I'd hope PGM might make 200p before Christmas, and if it does we can be looking at a couple of potentials. Firstly, if we have invested the bluechip money into the share we could exit and have made the lost money back. Additionally we could sell the value of our original stake in PGM, thus clearing the cost element and be left with just the remaining element, which all being well by then, would be worth £3.5k after selling that portion. That would still give a good percentage of the holding's value to decide whether to continue to hold or sell.

Yes, it is a riskier strategy but riskier within some kind of calculated reason. I can't see the point in selling the bluechips unless there is a good redeployment strategy in place that will hopefully see some gain. The above might never happen of course but nobody really knows what shares are going to do. Maybe we are looking at the answer to the issue and maybe we are not.

At the end of the day not many of us want to have the bluechip stocks, we are not generally inclined to take the loss happily and there aren't a queue of suggestions of how to resolve the issue. That obviously doesn't mean the suggestion I have made is right or indeed that it is wrong either. What it does give is a strategy forward for those shares, which we don't currently have.
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by AAAlphaThunder » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:44 pm

Let's vote it out Chairman.
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by Richard Frost » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:48 pm

If you do decide to go for gold fever, have a quick exit strategy and do not rely on organising a vote before you sell, if you need to. if you need to exit you may need to do it sharpish. Any delay could leave you with a very nasty taste in the mouth. Too high risk for me personally if you pull it off, then good luck to you.

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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by garindan » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:56 pm

Richard Frost wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:48 pm
If you do decide to go for gold fever, have a quick exit strategy and do not rely on organising a vote before you sell, if you need to. if you need to exit you may need to do it sharpish. Any delay could leave you with a very nasty taste in the mouth. Too high risk for me personally if you pull it off, then good luck to you.
It's good advice. Making a mends on the losses of the bluechips would please most of us, if not all, and that would probably be sufficient for us just to sell and count ourselves lucky, should that circumstance arrive.
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by burwin » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:05 pm

Its a rather bold strategy and goes against the "all eggs in one basket" buy hey nothing ventured nothing gained... Im in

garindan wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:23 pm
richard@imutual wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:51 pm
I just don't get the logic of mandating that the funds be invested in PGM (which, at the time of writing, now represents nearly half of our entire portfolio!)
Personally, I'd have sold all the bluechip shares a number of weeks ago and already have put them in PGM and made all the money back even before the last few days of PGM share upturn. My view then was and it still remains that there is plenty of life in the share to still do this. I don't have this feeling with any of the other shares at the moment and I don't know enough about any other "new" shares to replicate the aim. I'd hope PGM might make 200p before Christmas, and if it does we can be looking at a couple of potentials. Firstly, if we have invested the bluechip money into the share we could exit and have made the lost money back. Additionally we could sell the value of our original stake in PGM, thus clearing the cost element and be left with just the remaining element, which all being well by then, would be worth £3.5k after selling that portion. That would still give a good percentage of the holding's value to decide whether to continue to hold or sell.

Yes, it is a riskier strategy but riskier within some kind of calculated reason. I can't see the point in selling the bluechips unless there is a good redeployment strategy in place that will hopefully see some gain. The above might never happen of course but nobody really knows what shares are going to do. Maybe we are looking at the answer to the issue and maybe we are not.

At the end of the day not many of us want to have the bluechip stocks, we are not generally inclined to take the loss happily and there aren't a queue of suggestions of how to resolve the issue. That obviously doesn't mean the suggestion I have made is right or indeed that it is wrong either. What it does give is a strategy forward for those shares, which we don't currently have.
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by parchedpeas » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:09 pm

At £1.31 as I write.

Whatever we decide, I agree an entry and exit strategy is what we need here, baked into the vote with dates and prices pre-agreed.
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by garindan » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:21 pm

parchedpeas wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:09 pm
At £1.31 as I write.

Whatever we decide, I agree an entry and exit strategy is what we need here, baked into the vote with dates and prices pre-agreed.
Agreed. It will also be interesting to see what happens tomorrow and Friday, in terms of the share price. I feel it might slip back a bit due to the rises, which would be good if we want to buy in.

I'll think about specific things entry/exit points this evening. Watch this space.

Keep the comments coming in the meantime.
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by Beachboy » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:05 pm

The counter argument if you feel it will drop back is to try and sell all our current holding before it does and then buy back in again once it has fallen. This could be with the proceeds from any PMG sale and/or the blue chip sales as well.

Just putting it out there as an option.
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Re: Club investment strategy discussion thread

Post by garindan » Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:20 pm

Beachboy wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:05 pm
The counter argument if you feel it will drop back is to try and sell all our current holding before it does and then buy back in again once it has fallen. This could be with the proceeds from any PMG sale and/or the blue chip sales as well.

Just putting it out there as an option.
True. I was thinking it might fall back 10p or so but it's only a guess of course. It may continue going, so selling would risk not being able to get back in. My gut feeling has been 200p as a target price to sell some but not all and I'd personally be wary selling any beforehand in case it scuppers being able to achieve it.
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