Chesham & Amersham

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Sarah
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by Sarah » Fri Jul 02 2021 6:06pm

Here's another interesting result from yesterday, even if only a council seat.

Image
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/statu ... 36419?s=20

The likely explanation being former UKIP voters moving to CON, while a greater number of former CON voters switched to LDEM or GRN.
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Richard Frost
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by Richard Frost » Fri Jul 02 2021 6:16pm

The politicians all come out with all the reasons, but in truth none of them are right. Mid term byelections are a law unto themselves. In truth with another election not due till May 2024 it is impossible to predict what the parties/elected people will do to F*** things up beforehand
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Chadwick
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by Chadwick » Mon Jul 05 2021 10:41am

Sarah wrote:
Fri Jul 02 2021 6:06pm
Here's another interesting result from yesterday, even if only a council seat.

Image
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/statu ... 36419?s=20

The likely explanation being former UKIP voters moving to CON, while a greater number of former CON voters switched to LDEM or GRN.
I think the Libdems tend to get seats at bye elections and councils where it's seen as a local issue. But when it's a national matter - a general election - the same constituents won't re-elect the same Libdem candidate to the same seat.
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Sarah
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by Sarah » Fri Sep 24 2021 2:09pm

This is pitiful - the turnout just 19.21%! Was everyone else stuck queueing for petrol? :wtf:

Image
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sanity clause
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by sanity clause » Fri Sep 24 2021 3:26pm

Sarah wrote:
Fri Sep 24 2021 2:09pm
This is pitiful - the turnout just 19.21%! Was everyone else stuck queueing for petrol? :wtf:

Image
Democracy at work. Everyone gets what noone wants. :lol: :crazy:
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Sarah
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by Sarah » Fri Oct 08 2021 1:27pm

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Kelantan
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by Kelantan » Fri Oct 08 2021 1:35pm

Sarah wrote:
Fri Oct 08 2021 1:27pm
Next: Old Bexley and Sidcup
Was this the seat Edward Heath used to have? Will be interesting, but unlikely to return anything other than a Conservative surely.
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by Sarah » Fri Oct 08 2021 1:45pm

Kelantan wrote:
Fri Oct 08 2021 1:35pm
Was this the seat Edward Heath used to have? Will be interesting, but unlikely to return anything other than a Conservative surely.
Yes, it apparently is:
Sir Edward Heath (prime minister of the United Kingdom 1970–1974) held this area (also referring to its main predecessor seat, Sidcup) from 1950 until 2001 when he retired at the age of 84, at the time the longest-serving MP in the Commons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Bexle ... stituency)
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by Richard Frost » Fri Dec 03 2021 10:03am

Sarah wrote:
Fri Oct 08 2021 1:45pm
Kelantan wrote:
Fri Oct 08 2021 1:35pm
Was this the seat Edward Heath used to have? Will be interesting, but unlikely to return anything other than a Conservative surely.
Yes, it apparently is:
Sir Edward Heath (prime minister of the United Kingdom 1970–1974) held this area (also referring to its main predecessor seat, Sidcup) from 1950 until 2001 when he retired at the age of 84, at the time the longest-serving MP in the Commons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Bexle ... stituency)
Unsurprising result, Tory hold

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59505204 vastly reduced majority on an extremely low turnout. The lowest since 2018

Labour came second with a 10% swing
Perhaps more concerning Reform came 3rd
with Green party and Liberal Democrats losing their deposits
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Re: Chesham & Amersham

Post by pakefield » Fri Dec 03 2021 11:24am

Richard Frost wrote:
Fri Dec 03 2021 10:03am
Sarah wrote:
Fri Oct 08 2021 1:45pm
Kelantan wrote:
Fri Oct 08 2021 1:35pm
Was this the seat Edward Heath used to have? Will be interesting, but unlikely to return anything other than a Conservative surely.
Yes, it apparently is:
Sir Edward Heath (prime minister of the United Kingdom 1970–1974) held this area (also referring to its main predecessor seat, Sidcup) from 1950 until 2001 when he retired at the age of 84, at the time the longest-serving MP in the Commons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Bexle ... stituency)
Unsurprising result, Tory hold

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59505204 vastly reduced majority on an extremely low turnout. The lowest since 2018

Labour came second with a 10% swing
Perhaps more concerning Reform came 3rd
with Green party and Liberal Democrats losing their deposits
Lib Dems and possibly Greens are short of money so choosing which seats to target in the bye elections. This was always going to be how much the Tory vote weighed, no need to actually count the votes election.

But a low turnout (Tory voters will turn out when others cannot be bothered as it is only a by election etc) and still a 10% swing to Labour. Reform aka Brexit Party was not that much of a surprise But still only 6.6% at a time when you can vote for them and then vote Tory at the General Election when every MP could be important.
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